Drought risk assessment as changes in the potential stand yield classes and potential forest production for Sitka spruce, Scots pine, and pedunculate oak over the next 80 years in the Great Britain

Probabilistic climate data have become available for the first time through the UK Climate Projections 2009, so that the risk of tree growth change can be quantified. We assess the drought risk spatially and temporally using drought probabilities and tree species vulnerabilities across Britain. We assessed the drought impact on the potential yield class of three major tree species (Picea sitchensis, Pinus sylvestris, and Quercus robur) which presently cover around 59% (400,700 ha) of state-managed forests, across lowland and upland sites. Here we show that drought impacts result mostly in reduced tree growth over the next 80 years when using b1, a1b and a1fi IPCC emissions scenarios. We found a maximum reduction of 94% but also a maximum increase of 56% in potential stand yield class in the 2080s from the baseline climate (1961-1990). Furthermore, potential production over the national forest estate for all three species in the 2080s may decrease due to drought by 42% in the lowlands and 32% in the uplands in comparison to the baseline climate. Our results reveal that potential tree growth and forest production on the national forest estate in Britain is likely to reduce, and indicate where and when adaptation measures are required. Moreover, this paper demonstrates the value of probabilistic climate projections for an important economic and environmental sector.

Organic geochemical character and hydrocarbon source potential of selected black shales at DSDP Hole 93-603B

LECO analysis, pyrolysis assay, and bitumen and elemental analysis were used to characterize the organic matter of 23 black shale samples from Deep Sea Drilling Project Leg 93, Hole 603B, located in the western North Atlantic. The organic matter is dominantly gas-prone and/or refractory. Two cores within the Turonian and Cenomanian, however, contained significant quantities of well-preserved, hydrogen-enriched, organic matter. This material is thermally immature and represents a potential oil-prone source rock. These sediments do not appear to have been deposited within a stagnant, euxinic ocean as would be consistent with an "oceanic anoxic event." Their organic geochemical and sedimentary character is more consistent with deposition by turbidity currents originating on the continental shelf and slope.

Petroleum-generating potential of sediments at DSDP Leg 64 Holes

Sediments from the Gulf of California contain sufficient amounts of thermally reactive organic matter to be considered fair-to-good potential petroleum source rocks. While sediments deposited within the present oxygen-minimum zone have the greatest amounts of organic matter, those deposited below the oxygen-minimum contain sufficient organic matter to be considered potential source rocks. The organic matter in the sediment is almost exclusively marine, Type II kerogen. Different techniques of determining kerogen composition produce generally compatible answers, although pyrolysis gives somewhat misleading results. Elemental analysis of the kerogen and vitrinite reflectance measurements indicate that the organic matter is not buried to sufficiently great depth for significant petroleum generation, despite the high temperature gradients.

Increased CO2 modifies the carbon balance and the photosynthetic yield of two common Arctic brown seaweeds: Desmarestia aculeata and Alaria esculenta

Ocean acidification affects with special intensity Arctic ecosystems, being marine photosynthetic organisms a primary target, although the consequences of this process in the carbon fluxes of Arctic algae are still unknown. The alteration of the cellular carbon balance due to physiological acclimation to an increased CO2 concentration (1300 ppm) in the common Arctic brown seaweeds Desmarestia aculeata and Alaria esculenta from Kongsfjorden (Svalbard) was analysed. Growth rate of D. aculeata was negatively affected by CO2 enrichment, while A. esculenta was positively affected, as a result of a different reorganization of the cellular carbon budget in both species. Desmarestia aculeata showed increased respiration, enhanced accumulation of storage biomolecules and elevated release of dissolved organic carbon, whereas A. esculenta showed decreased respiration and lower accumulation of storage biomolecules. Gross photosynthesis (measured both as O2 evolution and 14C fixation) was not affected in any of them, suggesting that photosynthesis was already saturated at normal CO2 conditions and did not participate in the acclimation response. However, electron transport rate changed in both species in opposite directions, indicating different energy requirements between treatments and species specificity. High CO2 levels also affected the N-metabolism, and 13C isotopic discrimination values from algal tissue pointed to a deactivation of carbon concentrating mechanisms. Since increased CO2 has the potential to modify physiological mechanisms in different ways in the species studied, it is expected that this may lead to changes in the Arctic seaweed community, which may propagate to the rest of the food web.